MarketTrigger.Bot — Financial Signal Intelligence

The signal was
always there.

Reading the news is one thing. Exploiting it is another.
Unstructured global macro news → quantified financial intelligence.
80 thesis frameworks. Third-order inference. Every market, every 2 hours.

Open Intelligence Dashboard → See how it works ↓
298+
Sources monitored
● Live
80
Thesis frameworks
● Calibrated
2h
Detection interval
● Active
3rd
Order inference
● Active
5K+
Articles/cycle
● Live
🔴 ACT NOWMUSHORT ↓AI memory & storage demand surge
Entry · 2026-07-08
$938.38
P&L
+5.7%
Conviction
10.0/10
🛡️ Portfolio Risk
MEDIUM
Portfolio Beta
1.04
Sector Concentration
Ai Hardware19%
Energy6%
Commodities6%
Rates Macro3%
HEDGE RECOMMENDATIONS
LONG GLDTLT SHORT + no GLD = double-exposure in risk-off event. GLD
Curated portfolio
Top 10 Conviction Tickers
Ranked by conviction · Click any row for full thesis · P&L vs entry price
Updated June 2026
Next refresh: next bot cycle
Ticker Dir Category 1-Line Thesis Conv Entry P&L
STNG ↑ LONG Equity Tanker STRONG_DISLOC — Hormuz closed, tankers inexplicably down
9.5
— — ›
COHR ↑ LONG Equity Silicon photonics peer lag — MRVL +51.8%, COHR hasn't caught up
8.5
— — ›
LMND ↑ LONG Equity InsurTech profitability inflection — revenue +71%, EBITDA target Q4
8.5
— — ›
CANE ↑ LONG Commodity El Niño NOAA Watch 82% — sugar ETF, June 11 declaration catalyst
9.0
— — ›
FLNC ↑ LONG Equity Behind-the-meter storage peer — XOS +240% validated thesis, FLNC flat
8.5
— — ›
CEG ↑ LONG Mega Trend Nuclear + AI power PPAs — only clean baseload that scales to data center demand
8.0
— — ›
IBM ↑ LONG Equity $10B quantum commitment — Barclays upgrade, entry on June 9 rotation
9.0
— — ›
TLT ↓ SHORT Bond Fed hawkish June 17 — yield curve steepest in 4 years, TLT falls
8.5
$84.55 +0.1% ›
MP ↑ LONG Mega Trend Only US rare earth mine — China export ban, de-globalization permanent
8.5
— — ›
VLO ↑ LONG Event 2026 Gulf Coast refiner built for Venezuelan heavy crude — crack spreads widen
7.5
— — ›
This is a virtual signal tracker, not financial advice · All positions are simulated
Live intelligence briefings
Most recent structured signals
Each briefing = a scored event  |  cross-referenced across sources  |  mapped to a financial thesis
Equity ↓ SHORT 📈 Swing 5–30 days 22h ago | active
USDA released June Crop Production and WASDE reports, primary supply/demand data that moves grain futures.
Structured event context -- open dashboard for full analysis.
Certainty score
4.8 / 10
Framework
Prolonged drought — fe
Tickers to watch
see dashboard
Multiple sources Source transparency ↑
Bond ↑ LONG 📈 Swing 5–30 days 22h ago | active
Gold heading for first weekly gain in a month as markets scale back Fed rate hike expectations, supporting the safe-haven surge thesis.
Structured event context -- open dashboard for full analysis.
Certainty score
6.1 / 10
Framework
US fiscal deterioratio
Tickers to watch
see dashboard
Multiple sources Source transparency ↑
Equity ↑ LONG 📈 Swing 5–30 days 22h ago | active
Shanghai Container Freight Index surpasses 3300 amid rising shipping rates, signaling container freight cost inflation and elevated shipping demand.
Structured event context -- open dashboard for full analysis.
Certainty score
5.1 / 10
Framework
Tanker rate spike — ch
Tickers to watch
see dashboard
Multiple sources Source transparency ↑
View complete intelligence feed and all 80 thesis frameworks →
● Live right now

Theses building conviction today

These aren't predictions. They're signal patterns accumulating across multiple independent sources — the same pattern that preceded DELL +40% and SNOW +36%.

● DEVELOPING11 signals · 13d
AI memory & storage demand surge
10.0/10
# AI Memory & Storage Demand Surge Korea's semiconductor exports surged +682% MoM on June 25, 2026, driven by SK Hynix and Micron HBM/DRAM shipments to AI data centers, signaling acute demand acceleration. MU and WDC capture immediate DRAM/NAND upside, while STX benefits from enterprise SSD adoption and AMAT from equipment orders following capacity constraints. Confirm with Micron's next earnings beat on HBM ASP expansion and positive September quarter guidance—threshold move to Tier 1.
MUWDCSTX
● DEVELOPING11 signals · 13d
HBM supply bottleneck — AI GPU constraint
10.0/10
Korea's semiconductor exports surged +682% MoM on June 25th, driven by SK Hynix and Micron HBM volume—signaling acute supply constraints in high-bandwidth memory required for AI GPU scaling. MU and SK Hynix gain pricing power and allocation control; NVDA faces continued GPU delivery delays without secured HBM; TSM and AMAT benefit from capacity expansion orders to resolve bottlenecks. Confirmation: NVDA guidance explicitly attributing revenue delays to HBM availability, or announced long-term HBM contracts at locked-in premiums.
MUNVDATSM
● DEVELOPING11 signals · 13d
Government AI investment program
10.0/10
Korean semiconductor exports surged +682% MoM in June 2026, driven by SK Hynix and Micron HBM volume scaling—signaling acute AI chip supply constraints are breaking. PLTR gains visibility into defense AI infrastructure bottlenecks; BAH and LDOS secure integrator mandates as government agencies prioritize domestic HBM sourcing through defense contractors. Confirmation: official DOD procurement announcement of HBM allocation through BAH/LDOS prime contracts, or PLTR landing a $500M+ government AI platform deal.
PLTRBAHLDOS
See all 80 thesis frameworks →
298+
Sources monitored
2h
Detection interval
47
Calibration cycles
50%
Directional accuracy
31
Active thesis positions
Real example — second-order supply chain inference
A drought in Iowa.
Three stock moves nobody connected.
The obvious story was wheat prices rising. The bot followed the chain three steps further — and opened positions in fertilizer and equipment stocks before the move.
☀️
Hour 0 · Raw ingestion
"Dry conditions persist across central Iowa" — USDA Weekly Weather report RSS
Routine agricultural weather report. No confirmed crop damage — forecast language only. Scored 3.1/10. Filed, watching.
Weather forecast · 3.1/10 · watching
🌿
Hour 31 · Cross-source trigger
AgWeb + NOAA + Reuters Agriculture all confirm: drought upgraded to D3 Extreme
Three independent sources confirm D3 drought across 4 major corn and soybean counties. Cross-source multiplier ×1.3 applied. Score raised to 8.1/10. Crop failure thesis activated.
3 sources · ×1.3 · 8.1/10
8.1 / 10
🗺️
Hour 31 · Supply chain inference — 3 steps
Drought → crop loss → aggressive replanting → fertilizer demand spike
Step 1: D3 drought → significant corn and soybean yield loss confirmed.
Step 2: Farmers compensate with aggressive replanting + higher fertilizer application. Mosaic (MOS) and Nutrien (NTR) are primary beneficiaries — North American fertilizer supply is highly concentrated.
Step 3: Equipment losses and replanting capex → AGCO and Deere (DE) service and parts demand spike.
3rd order mapped · drought → fertilizer → equipment
📈
T+10 days · Share price moves
MOS +14.2% · NTR +9.8% · AGCO +7.1% · DE +5.4%
All four moved before mainstream press connected the drought to fertilizer and equipment demand. Supply chain context was structured 31 hours after weather data confirmed D3 classification.
MOS+14.2%10d
NTR+9.8%10d
AGCO+7.1%10d
DE+5.4%10d
Calibration recorded · fertilizer events scored higher ↑
📺
T+12 days · Mainstream coverage
Bloomberg Agriculture: "Iowa drought drives fertilizer stocks to 18-month highs"
Published 11 days after the intelligence briefing was live. The calibration system recorded the outcome — fertilizer events now score higher in future cycles.
Bloomberg publishes · 11 days after briefing
What you see
The briefing — as it appears on the dashboard
Structured, sourced, and contextualised within 2 hours of event confirmation.
trigger-bot-production.up.railway.app/dashboard
Intelligence Dashboard
LIVE
Agriculture · 8.1/10
D3 drought confirmed across Iowa corn belt — crop failure + aggressive replanting cycle expected
Certainty
8.1/10
Sources
3 · ×1.3
Framework
Crop failure
2nd order
Fertilizer ↑
MOS NTR AGCO DE
Cyber · 8.0/10
Ransomware on critical manufacturing — West Pharma + Foxconn infrastructure confirmed
Certainty
8.0/10
Sources
2 sources
Framework
Cyber attack
2nd order
Security ↑
Discovery · 7.2/10
UniCredit approaches Commerzbank — strategic review language across 3 independent sources
Certainty
7.2/10
Sources
3 · ×1.3
Framework
M&A catalyst
Type
Discovery
More examples — the second-order edge
The move was telegraphed.
Most people missed it.
These aren't hindsight. They're the exact signal chain the bot now tracks in real time.
AI Server Supply Chain
DELL +40%
Q1 FY2027 earnings
The chain: $750B hyperscaler AI capex confirmed → someone has to assemble the servers → Dell booked $24.4B AI orders in one quarter → $51.3B backlog + $9.7B Pentagon contract → +757% AI server revenue YoY.
ai_server_manufacturer capex_surge
Enterprise AI Data Platform
SNOW +36%
$6B AWS deal + earnings beat
The chain: Hyperscalers spend $750B on AI compute → AI agents need governed enterprise data to function → Snowflake sits at that junction → AWS commits $6B over 5 years → revenue +33% YoY, $1.39B vs $1.27B expected.
enterprise_ai_data ai_growth
Both of these moves were caught after the fact and used to improve the bot. The theses, sources, and scoring rules that would have caught them are now live.
Intelligence pipeline
From raw data to structured context
Five layers transform unstructured global data into structured financial intelligence — no human curation required.
01 | MONITOR
📡
150+ data sources
Reuters, EIA, SEC EDGAR, Polygon, FRED, NewsAPI, 100+ RSS feeds — continuously monitored
02 | SCORE
🧠
AI conviction scoring
Claude Haiku scores each event 0–10 by certainty and financial relevance. Confirmed events score high. Opinions and AI capability articles score near zero. Self-calibrates weekly from outcomes.
03 | VERIFY
🔗
Cross-source verification
3+ independent sources confirming the same event multiplies certainty 1.3–1.7×. Reduces noise, amplifies confirmed events.
04 | STRUCTURE
🗺️
Context mapping
Maps each event to a structured framework. Follows second and third-order effects automatically.
05 | CALIBRATE
🔄
Adaptive calibration
Weekly: compares certainty scores to observed market outcomes. Adjusts forward scoring per event type continuously.
Coverage
80 event frameworks across five markets
Each framework defines the event trigger, relevant market context, affected sectors, time horizon, and resolution signals. Structured context — not advice.
🛢️
Energy & Commodities | 16 frameworks
Supply chain & physical markets
Chokepoint disruptions, shipping route changes, crude rerouting, agricultural commodity stress, soft commodity crop shocks, critical mineral supply chains, nuclear energy developments.
Tanker ratesOil shocksRed SeaUraniumMineralsCocoa/Coffee/Sugar
💻
Equity Markets | 28 frameworks
Technology, geopolitics & policy
Cybersecurity incidents, AI infrastructure buildout, defense spending cycles, semiconductor supply chain events, space economy, microgravity pharma, M&A catalysts, market disruption patterns.
Cyber attacksAI buildoutDefenseSemiconductorsSpace economyM&A
🏦
Fixed Income & Macro | 10 frameworks
Rates, capital flows & fiscal signals
Rate cycle shifts, Japanese capital repatriation, yield curve dynamics, fiscal deterioration signals, private credit stress, corporate bond issuance patterns.
Rate cyclesJapan BoJYield curveUS fiscalPrivate credit
🌾
Agriculture & Soft Commodities | 3 frameworks
Weather, crop shocks & downstream
West Africa cocoa (Harmattan/ICCO), Brazil Arabica coffee (CONAB frost), India/Thailand sugar export bans. Bearish downstream: MDLZ, HSY, KHC margin compression.
CocoaCoffeeSugarConsumer staples bearish
Calibration
How the intelligence improves
The system measures its own accuracy weekly — comparing certainty scores to observed directional outcomes by event type. No human intervention required.
50%
Directional accuracy
47
Calibration cycles completed
138
Resolved positions
Building…
Pearson r ⓘ
About the Pearson r metric: A positive r means the system correctly ranks higher-conviction signals as better performers. Early in deployment (under 20 resolved positions), the r value is statistically meaningless — treat it as a data point, not a verdict. The system requires 5+ resolved positions to run calibration at all. Currently accumulating data.
Cyber attack events
↑ Score raised +0.3
100% directional accuracy. Consistently under-scored relative to observed outcomes.
Policy shift events
↑ Score raised +0.3
100% directional accuracy, strong observed outcomes. Under-scored.
Uranium events
↓ Score lowered -0.2
0% directional accuracy in current sample. Over-scored relative to observed outcomes.
About
Comments & requests
Suggest a new event type, data source, or framework. Intelligence coverage expands based on what matters to users.
🔭
Discovery engine
Daily scan of events outside all existing frameworks. Found Boeing China 200-plane order, UniCredit/Commerzbank takeover, NextEra megadeal before mainstream financial press.
⚙️
Adaptive calibration
Weekly Pearson correlation between certainty scores and observed directional outcomes — per event type. The system improves continuously without human intervention.
📊
Second-order context
Follows financial effects 2–3 steps downstream. Oil shock → refining margin expansion → oilfield services demand. Structured context, not surface signals.
Thanks — we read every submission.